Mid Major BCS Busters

Forget BYU, Boise State, Utah and TCU. These are the real BCS busters to watch this year.

East Carolina (9-5 in 2008)

East Carolina has made its name known the past couple years. Running back Chris Johnson put in the performance of the bowl season in 2008 and then went on to dominate the NFL as a rookie. Last year, the Pirates team made their mark by knocking off #17 ranked Virginia Tech week 1, then turned around and dominated the #8 ranked West Virginia Mountaineers the following week. It went downhill from there, however, and ECU stumbled through the rest of the year. They finished 9-5, capped off by a disappointing loss to Kentucky in their bowl game.

This year, there's no reason to expect a similar drop off. ECU returns every starter on offense except their tight end. On defense, they return every starter except their strong safety and one defensive end. That means they're returning 19/22 starters, along with both their kicker and punter. Like last year, they also have the opportunity to knock out a trio of BCS opponents in Virginia Tech, West Virginia and North Carolina. If they can knock out 2/3 teams like they did last year, they have the team to run away with a weak Conference USA and see a January bowl game.


Nevada (7-6 in 2008)

That's right; I'm telling you to look out for a WAC team not named Boise State. While Boise State only returns 11 starters from a team that went undefeated last year, Nevada returns 8 starters on both side of the ball, including one of the most prolific offenses in college football.

Nevada is led by a man by the name of Chris Ault, who invented the Pistol Offense. His QB is a lanky 6'6" dual-threat QB y the name of Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick started as a freshman in 2007 and responded with 2175 yards, 19 TD's and 3 INT's passing to go along with 600 yards and 6 TD's on the ground in just 9 games. Last year, he continued his success, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 22 TD's, 7 INT's. His damage on the ground is what stood out though, as he ran for 1130 yards and 17 TD's.

Kaepernick is complemented by a running back by the name of Vai Taua who ran for over 1500 yards with 15 touchdowns, also as a sophomore last year. The offense also returns 4/5 offensive linemen and 3/4 of Kaepernick's top targets. The team isn't too strong defensively, but it does return 2 all-conference caliber DE's and 6 other defensive starters, so it should be at least a respectable unit. Schedule-wise, they have 2 very tough games @ Notre Dame and @ Boise State, but after that, they have smooth sailing. They should get two respectable wins from Missouri and Fresno State. This team has a legitimate shot at going undefeated, but can enter BCS discussion even with a loss to Notre Dame.


Central Michigan (8-5 in 2008)

The Chips return the mid major version of Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour. LeFevour battled injuries last year and "only" had 2784 yards passing, 21 TD, 6 INT with 600 yards and 6 TD's rushing, but he was a 3000/1000 player as a sophomore and scored 46 TD's to boot (27 passing, 19 rushing). The 3-year starter returns his top 3 receiving threats and this offense should go out with a bang.

This year, they have no Ball State to worry about. Instead, the only conference game they might lose is @ Western Michigan. Their OOC schedule is respectable as they travel to both Michigan St. and Arizona, but both of those programs lost their main pieces from last year and CMU should be an underdog by no more than a few points in either game.


Big East Boss: Rutgers (8-5 in 2008)

Rutgers has one of the best chances of any team at going undefeated in 2009. No, I’m not that high on this team, but I am this low on that conference. Look at Rutgers’ schedule, it’s pathetic. They get USF, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and West Virginia all at home and their only conference road games are Connecticut, Syracuse and Louisville, all on down years. Their toughest game might be @ Maryland, and that’s nothing. And get this, their other OOC games are Howard, FIU, Texas Southern and Army. Who? Exactly.

Don’t get me wrong, this team is solid as well. They lose Mike Teel, a 3-year starter and arguably their top 2 receivers, but return everything else, including a couple of experienced WR’s. At QB, they have a couple of senior QB’s to choose from for replacements. They also return the majority of a defense that only gave up more than 24 points once last year, and held 7 teams to less than 13 points. The team is far from BCS caliber, but they’re in a glorified mid major conference and should win 9-10 games.


Big 10 Buster: Illinois (5-7 in 2008)

Illinois had awful luck last year, with 6 of their 7 losses being decided by less than two scores, including games against #6 Missouri, #12 Penn State and #11 Ohio State. This year, they should have the senior leadership to close out games and contend for a Big 10 title. Their offense will be led by now senior QB Juice Williams and one of the best WR's in college football, Arrelious Benn. On defense, they boast one of the best linebackers in college football, Martez Wilson. With the entire defensive backfield returning behind him, Illinois should have a formidable defense.

I'm mainly high on Illinois because they are, without question, one of the most talented teams in the Big 10. Ron Zook has done a magnificent job recruiting at Illinois since he has got there. We saw him pull it together 2 years ago and lead the Illini to the Rose Bowl against USC. I fully expect him to lead this team to at least 9 wins again this year. While they have to travel to Columbus, their other road games are against bottom feeders Indiana and Purdue, along with a solid Minnesota squad. They get Penn State and Michigan State at home and they don’t have to play Wisconsin and Iowa. If they can upset OSU, they could very easily find their way to Pasadena once again.


SEC Sleeper: Tennessee (5-7 in 2008)

I don’t know what it is, but there’s something about Lane Kiffin that I like. Maybe it’s just his wife, but I think it’s his confidence. I have a feeling he’s going to step into Knoxville and make his mark on the field (he’s already made one off of it.) The Volunteers have a talented team that simply underachieved last year. They lost 3 games by less than 6 points and had a schedule that featured 4 top 15 teams. Kiffin continued to inject talent with a tremendous recruiting class and his father Monte should make the Vol defense one of the better ones in the country. Tennessee returns just about everyone on offense and most of the key pieces on defense, including all-world safety Eric Berry.

That said, Tennessee does have a very tough schedule this upcoming season. They have to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi and also have games against Georgia and Auburn (another sleeper candidate.) However, I still think this team will win 9 games and upset at least one of those teams on the road. Even if they aren’t a BCS contender, they’re certainly one to watch next year.